Campaign Gist: Building a Wall

This is a Gist I would prefer not to write, in part because I suffered watching the leaders' debate and was left with no additional content beyond questions about the fashion status of chest hair and, for some reason, a tendancy to mutter 'mentally stabbed' to myself all day.

But if our shapeless and narrative-free dark winter election has been pointing towards anything, it has suggested a lot of people have thrown their hats at parties altogether and are settling on supporting Independent candidates. In the last Irish Times/IPSOS poll, the highest named party support was for Fine Gael at 25%. But the group marked Independents sat above that again at 29%.

Now, if that represented a party, you'd be looking at at the biggest party in the country. But it doesn't represent a party. Independents run the spectrum from local heroes, like Catherine Connolly and Thomas Pringle, to Fianna Fáilers or Fine Gaelers who didn't get the party nod to run (the Healy-Rae Origin Story, for example) to absolute Headbangers.

But, if you crunch some numbers and take account of some results from the Local Elections as well, you end up with six constituencies where there is a fair risk that one of that Headbanger class might get elected- usually on the last seat.

If, like me, this seems like something you'd like to avoid, you might want to throw a bit of financial support, or a vote or even campaign for whoever is best placed to avoid that from happening. And the magic of PR means you can still vote for others you like down the ballot.

So, with the minimum amount of having to show all my very boring spreadsheety homework, here are the main troublesome constituencies, and the candidates to back or vote for in each to minimise the most unhappy outcome's odds.

Dublin Bay North

What's Up: Actual riots earlier this year.
Who's the best person to vote for if you live there?: John Lyons, Independent Left.
Why them: Do not make me wave a spreadsheet at you. Look, his vote base is exactly the same areas as where the headbangers are looking to get their votes. He has a solid local record as a Councillor and he just missed out on the last seat to Sean Haughey last time.

Cavan Monaghan

What's Up: Heather Humphries' big vote is up for grabs.
Best person to vote for if you live there: Probably the weaker of the two SF incumbents, Pauline Tully TD.
Why them: This is a headscratcher of a setup. But on the presumption that SF's polltopper is returned, that FG will get someone or other of their plethora of candidates elected and that FF's two TDs will return, that leaves the last seat between the second SF sitting TD and one of many available Headbangers.

No donation method offered, but TD page here: https://paulinetully.ie/

Dublin Central

What's Up: I mean, where do you start? Let's say this constituency has the worst sort of celebrity candidates.
Best person to vote for if you live there: Gary Gannon TD and Neasa Hourigan TD, one and two in whatever order of preference you like.
Why them: There is a real chance of a Headbanger candidate getting in here and the best block to that would be to just fill all the seats with the current incumbents. On the pretty safe assumption that neither the Leader of SF nor Paschal Donoghue will be fighting it out for the last two seats, the best thing would be to vote for the other two, at 1 and 2 respectively, in whatever order you prefer.

Dublin North West

What's Up: Three seats, one without an incumbent with Róisín Shorthall stepping down.
Best person to vote for if you live there: Rory Hearne, looking to hold the seat for the Social Democrats
Why them: Because if you shake all the numbers up in a big tumbler that is the best use of a Number 1 for a voter who wants to make sure the last seat doesn't go anywhere less savoury.

Galway West

What's Up: Another empty seat as Dev tribute act, O'Cuiv finally goes away.
Best person to vote for if you live there: I mean, the best person to vote for here is Catherine Connolly. But if you are firmly anti-headbanger, you might put her 2 behind a candidate that could hold the last seat. Social Democrats' Niall Ó Tuathail was the underticket candidate below the fight between the two FG candidates last time. This time I'd rank Labour's Helen Ogbu, SD's Cllr Eibhlin Seoighthe and Green Party Senator Pauline O'Reilly in whatever order you preferred.
Why them: If the transfers between them are strong, the last seat should go to one of them.

Cork North Central

What's Up?: This is a mad constituency with a history of lunatic choices abounding. We have two Labour candidates, two Social Democrats, FF gene pool independents, headbangers and all sorts. I mean, what am I meant to do with this?
Best Person to vote for if you live there: Mick Barry TD from People Before Profit. Why them: He's an incumbent, so lots of name recognition, but he lost a chunk of his base in a boundary redraw. He's vulnerable to a strong showing from one particular challenger from the right.

That's it. That's my best effort. I hope it was of some assistance.

*Correction: I originally said Labour, the Greens and the Social Democrats were all running two candidates in Cork North Central. The Greens only have one. I regret the bleary eyed error.